2000 BES Abstracts

A Review and Assessment of Land Use Change Models: dynamics of space, time, and human choice

J. Morgan Grove, Chetan Agarwal, Glen L. Green, Tom Evans, and Charles Schweik

Human use and management of terrestrial resources significantly alter vegetation structure, function, extent, distribution, and species composition and change nutrient and hydrologic inputs. These vegetation, nutrient, and hydrologic variables are frequently critical inputs to most biogeochemistry models of watershed dynamics. Recently, the U.S. Forest Service Southern and Northern Global Change Programs determined the need for a review and assessment of existing land use change models that include social drivers. We review and classify existing models using a classification scheme that arrays models along three-axes: space, time, and human decision-making. We use this classification scheme in part to present our findings and to assess future directions for incorporating social drivers in land use change models. We conclude by considering the usefulness of different models for the Baltimore Ecosystem Study (BES).